Post by Ipposnif on Jul 1, 2019 17:24:11 GMT
First of all, thanks to the user luizgabriel for having inspired this strategy! It is basically the opposite of the one currently used in the first challenge, but it has a very different pace.
This is an aggressive strategy, WIN OR LOSE, there is no chance for the strategy to remain stuck, "hanging around" the starting capital for a long period!
This time the Fibonacci progression is used to chase the eventual losses.
Each step of the Fibonacci progression is made up of a Masaniello round. Each round is made up of maximum 8 bets, 7 wins required. It places LAY bets on greyhound runners with a price between 3.5 and 4.8. One bet at one time. This Masaniello combination provides, in case of a win, +160% of the round starting capital. It is enough to cover all the previous losses accumulated by the Fibonacci progression.
Most of the winnings should come from winning rounds in the first step of the Fibonacci progression. The other steps have mainly the scope of recovering the losses.
Every time the round is won the Fibonacci restarts from 1. Every time the round is lost, the capital increases following the Fibonacci progression. The strategy stops at the fourth losing round in a row. There is no stop win, it will be the user to decide when to stop it.
I decided to test this new strategy with the minimum capital, that is 3 euro.
You can follow the strategy, in real time, from here.
If you want to run yourself the strategy, you can download it from here. Of course, you need Ipposnif to run it.
Enjoy!
update 2 Jul 2019
The first attempt went very bad: a negative series consumed rapidly the whole capital. There is also one error by my end: the number of negative rounds in a row, it was supposed to be not greater than 4. Instead the condition in the point 8 "<5" allows 5 of these rounds.
So I reduce this to 4 and I try another shot this time increasing the capital to 12 euro, and the Masaniello round to 0.8. I increase the capital mainly because I want that each winning bet pays at least 0.01 euro of commission, to accomplish with the Betfair minimum requirements. You can follow this new attempt from here.
update 4 Jul 2019
This second attempt is going much better and it suggests to me some considerations that I didn't realize before.
The strategy after a while enters in a status WIN-WIN. This because the winnings are not capitalized. To be more clear: the total capital now is around 25 euro but in the worst case the strategy will lose 8-10 euro of the starting capital and stop, closing with a granted profit.
The strategy is more aggressive than I thought before: it doubled the capital in two days but risking a couple of times to go busted.
update 5 Jul 2019
Yesterday the strategy met four losing Masaniello rounds in a row, finishing the operative capital, and ending with a net P&L of around 12 euro. This means that the starting capital was doubled. This is a promising strategy and I will give another try investing the 12 euro earned.
update 6 Jul 2019
Second losing ride out of three. This time, the busting combination was 7 losses on 13 bets, that has 1 chance out of ~50 to show.
Anyway, the monetary result at the moment is:
1) -2.93
2) +11.73
3) -7.11
-----------
= +1.69
Another try is obliged and it will start today!
update 7 Jul 2019
The fourth attempt finished without glory and with a loss of -7.11€
Let's do a summary of the challenge till now, before restarting with a small change to the strategy:
Net P&L = -5.42€
Fees paid = -5.04€
In an imaginary world without gaming fees, the strategy would have finished with the same capital (more or less) of the start.
Total bets = 340
Winning bets = 253
Expected wins= 259
Expected wins are the wins that statistically we should expect laying runners with an average odd of 4.1.
So the number of real wins is only slightly smaller than the number of theoretically expected wins. Basically, I cannot blame the luck if the challenge till now is losing.
The next attempt will be done extending the Fibonacci series to a maximum of 6 losses in a row, instead of the actual 4.
The capital needed this time is 1+2+3+5+8+13 = 32 * 0.8€ = 25.6€
The operative capital will be 35€.
Let's see what happens.
update 8 Jul 2019
A very unlucky streak has terminated the 5' attempt. Only 24 wins on 39, when the expected wins should be around 30. six missing winnings on a few races at an odd of 1.25 (LAY 4.1) are a lot. Anyway, this is the result, that shows how a cover of six rounds in a row cannot be enough in a moment of bad luck.
I will give another try in the next future, for now, the strategy is suspended.
This is an aggressive strategy, WIN OR LOSE, there is no chance for the strategy to remain stuck, "hanging around" the starting capital for a long period!
This time the Fibonacci progression is used to chase the eventual losses.
Each step of the Fibonacci progression is made up of a Masaniello round. Each round is made up of maximum 8 bets, 7 wins required. It places LAY bets on greyhound runners with a price between 3.5 and 4.8. One bet at one time. This Masaniello combination provides, in case of a win, +160% of the round starting capital. It is enough to cover all the previous losses accumulated by the Fibonacci progression.
Most of the winnings should come from winning rounds in the first step of the Fibonacci progression. The other steps have mainly the scope of recovering the losses.
Every time the round is won the Fibonacci restarts from 1. Every time the round is lost, the capital increases following the Fibonacci progression. The strategy stops at the fourth losing round in a row. There is no stop win, it will be the user to decide when to stop it.
I decided to test this new strategy with the minimum capital, that is 3 euro.
You can follow the strategy, in real time, from here.
If you want to run yourself the strategy, you can download it from here. Of course, you need Ipposnif to run it.
Enjoy!
update 2 Jul 2019
The first attempt went very bad: a negative series consumed rapidly the whole capital. There is also one error by my end: the number of negative rounds in a row, it was supposed to be not greater than 4. Instead the condition in the point 8 "<5" allows 5 of these rounds.
So I reduce this to 4 and I try another shot this time increasing the capital to 12 euro, and the Masaniello round to 0.8. I increase the capital mainly because I want that each winning bet pays at least 0.01 euro of commission, to accomplish with the Betfair minimum requirements. You can follow this new attempt from here.
update 4 Jul 2019
This second attempt is going much better and it suggests to me some considerations that I didn't realize before.
The strategy after a while enters in a status WIN-WIN. This because the winnings are not capitalized. To be more clear: the total capital now is around 25 euro but in the worst case the strategy will lose 8-10 euro of the starting capital and stop, closing with a granted profit.
The strategy is more aggressive than I thought before: it doubled the capital in two days but risking a couple of times to go busted.
update 5 Jul 2019
Yesterday the strategy met four losing Masaniello rounds in a row, finishing the operative capital, and ending with a net P&L of around 12 euro. This means that the starting capital was doubled. This is a promising strategy and I will give another try investing the 12 euro earned.
update 6 Jul 2019
Second losing ride out of three. This time, the busting combination was 7 losses on 13 bets, that has 1 chance out of ~50 to show.
Anyway, the monetary result at the moment is:
1) -2.93
2) +11.73
3) -7.11
-----------
= +1.69
Another try is obliged and it will start today!
update 7 Jul 2019
The fourth attempt finished without glory and with a loss of -7.11€
Let's do a summary of the challenge till now, before restarting with a small change to the strategy:
Net P&L = -5.42€
Fees paid = -5.04€
In an imaginary world without gaming fees, the strategy would have finished with the same capital (more or less) of the start.
Total bets = 340
Winning bets = 253
Expected wins= 259
Expected wins are the wins that statistically we should expect laying runners with an average odd of 4.1.
So the number of real wins is only slightly smaller than the number of theoretically expected wins. Basically, I cannot blame the luck if the challenge till now is losing.
The next attempt will be done extending the Fibonacci series to a maximum of 6 losses in a row, instead of the actual 4.
The capital needed this time is 1+2+3+5+8+13 = 32 * 0.8€ = 25.6€
The operative capital will be 35€.
Let's see what happens.
update 8 Jul 2019
A very unlucky streak has terminated the 5' attempt. Only 24 wins on 39, when the expected wins should be around 30. six missing winnings on a few races at an odd of 1.25 (LAY 4.1) are a lot. Anyway, this is the result, that shows how a cover of six rounds in a row cannot be enough in a moment of bad luck.
I will give another try in the next future, for now, the strategy is suspended.
