Post by Ipposnif on Jun 20, 2019 21:34:58 GMT
Hi all,
now that Ipposnif is almost completed I can dedicate more time to develop new strategies. I’m not a big expert of horses, neither I have time to increase my knowledge and keep me updated watching the races every afternoon. Instead, I rely on automatic strategies with advanced stake progression that patiently wait for a period of luck, during which maximize the profits.
I’m going to share with you a strategy that follows this approach to betting.
This strategy will start playing tomorrow and you can monitor the results in real time from here (bets are placed 1 minute before the start).
If you want to run it with your money, you can download the strategy from here.
Since it is using a new variable not yet present in Ipposnif (I will include it the next release), you need to manually add the variable to the program.
From menu 'Tools' open 'Database Command' and paste and execute the following SQL command:
INSERT [dbo].[tbl_SysVariables] ([Name], [Declaration], [Funct]) VALUES (N'historical_net_profit', N'declare @historical_net_profit numeric(18,2)', N'select @historical_net_profit=isnull(totalpl,0) from tbl_Strategies where ID=@id_Strategy')
FIBONACCI OF MASANIELLO ROUNDS
Investment = 50€ (Operative capital = 100€)
Net Profit Target = 50€
Markets = PLACE markets on UK/IE Horse Races
Bid Type = Back (one bet at one time)
Masaniello criteria: Odd 2.00-2.16 in rounds of max 11 events. 6 wins required.
Fibonacci criteria: Row of winning rounds until the profit target is achieved.
To understand the logic of this strategy you need to know what is a Masaniello and a Fibonacci progression because this strategy is a mix of them.
In the next post, I will describe in the details, the criteria and the logic used by the strategy.
Keep following!
Update 16 Jul 2019
Some considerations about this trial.
First of all, I have confirmed again that the odds offered by Betfair are incredibly close to the statistical chance of the events to happen: on 428 bets with an average BACK odd of 2.07 I would expect 428/2.07=207 winning bets. The real winnings are 212 so the discrepancy between expected and effective is barely 2%.
Second, on 45 rounds, only two times the strategy has won 3 rounds in a row. The chance of this combination is 2.07^3=8.8, so I would expect to see it 45/8.8 = 5.1 times and not only 2. I guess this will be compensated with a row of positive rounds (at least 3) very soon.
Last, but not least consideration is that this strategy is too slow. I will keep it running for another while, then I will reduce the length of the Masaniello round from 11 to 7.
Update 24 Jul 2019
In order to start testing the new version 2.4 of Ipposnif, this strategy is suspended. It will restart using the new version very soon.
now that Ipposnif is almost completed I can dedicate more time to develop new strategies. I’m not a big expert of horses, neither I have time to increase my knowledge and keep me updated watching the races every afternoon. Instead, I rely on automatic strategies with advanced stake progression that patiently wait for a period of luck, during which maximize the profits.
I’m going to share with you a strategy that follows this approach to betting.
This strategy will start playing tomorrow and you can monitor the results in real time from here (bets are placed 1 minute before the start).
If you want to run it with your money, you can download the strategy from here.
Since it is using a new variable not yet present in Ipposnif (I will include it the next release), you need to manually add the variable to the program.
From menu 'Tools' open 'Database Command' and paste and execute the following SQL command:
INSERT [dbo].[tbl_SysVariables] ([Name], [Declaration], [Funct]) VALUES (N'historical_net_profit', N'declare @historical_net_profit numeric(18,2)', N'select @historical_net_profit=isnull(totalpl,0) from tbl_Strategies where ID=@id_Strategy')
FIBONACCI OF MASANIELLO ROUNDS
Investment = 50€ (Operative capital = 100€)
Net Profit Target = 50€
Markets = PLACE markets on UK/IE Horse Races
Bid Type = Back (one bet at one time)
Masaniello criteria: Odd 2.00-2.16 in rounds of max 11 events. 6 wins required.
Fibonacci criteria: Row of winning rounds until the profit target is achieved.
To understand the logic of this strategy you need to know what is a Masaniello and a Fibonacci progression because this strategy is a mix of them.
In the next post, I will describe in the details, the criteria and the logic used by the strategy.
Keep following!
Update 16 Jul 2019
Some considerations about this trial.
First of all, I have confirmed again that the odds offered by Betfair are incredibly close to the statistical chance of the events to happen: on 428 bets with an average BACK odd of 2.07 I would expect 428/2.07=207 winning bets. The real winnings are 212 so the discrepancy between expected and effective is barely 2%.
Second, on 45 rounds, only two times the strategy has won 3 rounds in a row. The chance of this combination is 2.07^3=8.8, so I would expect to see it 45/8.8 = 5.1 times and not only 2. I guess this will be compensated with a row of positive rounds (at least 3) very soon.
Last, but not least consideration is that this strategy is too slow. I will keep it running for another while, then I will reduce the length of the Masaniello round from 11 to 7.
Update 24 Jul 2019
In order to start testing the new version 2.4 of Ipposnif, this strategy is suspended. It will restart using the new version very soon.
