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Post by luizgabriel on Jun 21, 2019 15:12:42 GMT
Hello, Fabrizio! Here's the strategy you've drawn up for me: Auto Betting - Lay Filtered Greyhounds See that it has a 3x progression and to bet on the 4x if the 3 bet is losing. How would it be possible to adapt Masaniello's progression in this strategy? And what start-up capital do you recommend to start (as little as possible)? I imagine winning in 7 of 10 bets, all bets are lay, minimum price of 3.50 and the variable skip_last can be 1, as I'm looking for a more conservative strategy. Many thanks, Fabrizio! -- Edition:Fabrizio, would it also be possible to add the Fibonacci sequence in this strategy? I see that the result of the first day of his strategy with Masaniello and Fibonacci has worked very well. Congratulations!
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Post by Ipposnif on Jun 26, 2019 10:44:54 GMT
Hi, let's give a look at the running strategy before taking decisions. Because how you can see, after 5 days and almost 100 bets, the capital is remaining, more or less, the same at the start. Maybe I should shorten the length of the Masaniello round from 11 to something like 5 or 7 events. I don't have time these days to code and follow new strategies, so I ask you to have a bit of patience with your strategy. I will do when this busy period will end. I invite you to do some experiments changing the code of the existing strategies you have. Always protect you using very small capital when testing. keep in touch!
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Post by luizgabriel on Jun 26, 2019 14:48:15 GMT
Okay, Fabrizio! So, I'll wait for the results of the strategy under test. I'm also following her. And what strikes me the most is that the capital is pretty much the same in almost 100 bets, that's interesting. I'm waiting. Hug.
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Post by Ipposnif on Jun 29, 2019 12:14:36 GMT
Hi Luiz, the strategy you are asking for has some incongruences that we have to solve before proceeding. The price of the runners is between 3.5 and 4.8. So the price of reference for the Masaniello could be set to 4 (more or less the average price in the long term). A Masaniello round of 7 wins out of 10, with a price of 4, produces a win amount equal to 280 times the initial capital. It is really a big win (and it is very difficult to close it!). Because one winning Masaniello round, by itself, covers other 279 losing rounds, it is not necessary to apply a Fibonacci in case of loss. I'm thinking about an alternative. Instead of the Fibonacci progression, we apply a plain martingale on even odds. The stakes in case of a row of losses are 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.. We reduce also the expected wins of the Masaniello round to 3 out of 10, that produces a win of 110% of the round capital. This is congruent with the martingale that expects even odd chances. Basically, every Masaniello round is like a coin flip. This is a different strategy from what you asked for, let me know what do you think about.
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Post by luizgabriel on Jun 29, 2019 14:32:00 GMT
Excellent considerations, Fabrizio, but Masaniello's "Bid Type" is Lay, this quotation from 3.5 to 4.8 is Lay and not Back, you see? How would these considerations be handled by you now with the "Bid Type" in Lay?
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Post by Ipposnif on Jun 29, 2019 20:26:58 GMT
Sorry for the mistake! Recalculating the situation: a Masaniello 7/10 with LAY price 4, produces a profit of 28% of the round capital. In a Fibonacci on a row of losses, it is not enough to cover the previous losses. It is needed at least a net win of 160%, especially when the row of losses is longer than 4 bets. I have found this Masaniello combination that matches well with Fibonacci: 7 out of 8 bets, LAY price 4 = +170% Is it ok for you? A question, how many maximum consecutive losses the Fibonacci progression must afford?
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Post by luizgabriel on Jun 29, 2019 22:54:58 GMT
Fabrizio, a doubt: then you mean that the strategy will only enter if the odd equals 4?
Can not bet on the range of 3.5 to 4.8?
In my tests so far, I did not get more than 3 consecutive losses, so I think this combination is viable. +170% will be my profit at the end of each round of Masaniello of 7 hits in 8 bets is this?
Regarding the maximum losses for the progression of Fibonacci to pay, it would be interesting to protect me with and put this value to 4 consecutive losses, what do you think?
Since in my tests never exceeded 3 consecutive losses. Will this strategy allow me to start with a $12 bankroll?
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Post by Ipposnif on Jun 30, 2019 13:52:26 GMT
Hi, Masaniello works with a fixed odd. If you want to bet in a range you should consider the worst price for you as the Masaniello input. In your case, if you want to bet LAY in a range 3.5-4.8 you should consider 4.8 as the price to input in the Masaniello function. When you catch a win with a price lower than this, you get an extra win that is summed to the predetermined win of the Masa progression. Statistically, if you bet in the range 3.5-4.8, the average odd will be the middle value: 4.15. You could input this value in the Masa function, but you lose the certainty of the profit for winning rounds and of the loss for losing rounds. Normally I prefer this approach and I use a capital greater than the one strictly required, to face these fluctuations. Yes, +170% is the net win of a winning Masa round. if you bet 1 euro, you get in return gross 2.7 euro. Regarding the question of the bankroll, it depends on which combination you are using for the Masa. For example a Masaniello LAY with price 4, 7 wins out of 8 events. If you use as capital 0.03 cents for the Masaniello round, you get the following situation: The second bet in the image (red square) is zero, and this is not allowed, because it means for Ipposnif that the capital of the round is finished and to reset the strategy. Instead, if you use 0.05 capital, you manage to have all the bets above 0.01, and this is working. 4 consecutive losses in a Masaniello round means 1+2+3+5=11 Instead of the minimum allowed capital (0.05), I would use 0.20 as capital for the Masa round, this to reduce the effects of second decimal rounding. 11*0.20=2.2 euro for the strategy capital. Suggested operative capital 3.00 euro. So yes you can run this strategy with a balance of 12 euro! I will implement this strategy, and share it from this forum Keep in touch!
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Post by luizgabriel on Jun 30, 2019 15:04:54 GMT
Great!! Very good, Fabrizio!! But look, 7 wins in 8 events I think are a bit difficult. Or is it okay, since the strategy has the capacity to support up to 4 losses in a row?
I confess I'm very surprised at the strategy you're testing on horses. In almost 200 bets the capital is practically intact. This is incredible, my friend!!!
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Post by Ipposnif on Jun 30, 2019 20:11:41 GMT
So I will develop with 7/8 but feel free to change the combination as you wish. You can use Tools-> Masaniello Calculator to find your perfect combination. Regarding the strategy, thanks, it is very resilient despite the luck was not on my side: on 18 rounds 8 of them have been closed at the 11' bet (the last). Only 1 of these 8 was winning, and since the average odd is 2.07 I would have expected a number of wins close to 4. Maybe this negative variance will be compensated by a positive period in the future
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Post by luizgabriel on Jun 30, 2019 21:45:44 GMT
Great, Fabrizio! So I'm waiting the strategy with these modifications. Thank you my friend.
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