Post by Ipposnif on Nov 28, 2020 8:58:59 GMT
If we don’t have an edge, our ROI in the medium-long term will be negative: the more bets we place, the faster we lose money.
In this case, we are gambling, and to win money, we need to cover (and overcome) the negative part of our ROI with a positive variance in our favor. Basically, we need Luck.
We cannot pretend to be always lucky in the long term, this is not really possible, but we can expect to have one lucky streak.
The scope of this strategy is to maximize a lucky streak and to give a big boost to our Betfair balance, keeping the ROI positive for a while.
The cost of one "ticket" is around 2€ and if the lucky streak is met, we win a minimum of 3000€.
If the ticket is losing, we need to manually reset the strategies and restart investing another ticket.
The Masaniello Accumulator strategy is formed by 3 groups of 3 Masaniello strategies each, for a total of 9 strategies. Please use the latest version 3.1.36 of Ipposnif to run the strategies.
These strategies have been tested with the default download configuration of Ipposnif, which downloads horse and greyhound races from the most relevant countries.
A. MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 1 (max 3 rounds, WIN/PLACE markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 2.48-2.72, 8 wins out of 11 events)
B. MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 2 (max 1 round, WIN/PLACE markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 2.48-2.72, 8 wins out of 11 events)
C. MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 3 (max 1 round, only WIN markets of horse races from GB and IE, price range 2.48-2.72, 8 wins out of 11 events)
D. MasaAccumB@3.65 5/8 1 (max 3 rounds, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 3.80-4.60, 5 wins out of 8 events)
E. MasaAccumB@3.65 5/8 2 (max 1 round, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 3.80-4.60, 5 wins out of 8 events)
F. MasaAccumB@3.65 5/8 3 (max 1 round, only WIN markets of horse races from GB and IE, price range 3.80-4.60, 5 wins out of 8 events)
G. MasaAccumB@4.80 5/10 1 (max 3 rounds, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 5.00-6.10, 5 wins out of 10 events)
H. MasaAccumB@4.80 5/10 2 (max 1 round, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 5.00-6.10, 5 wins out of 10 events)
I. MasaAccumB@4.80 5/10 3 (max 1 round, only WIN markets of horse races from GB and IE, price range 5.00-6.10, 5 wins out of 10 events)
The runners to bet are chosen by their price, and in the long term, the price is a precise statistical indicator of the runner's chance to win. There is still to account the market Overround and the Betfair fees, which will unbalance the chances to win in favor of the bank (Betfair). But compared to other games, this strategy offers a very fair chance to collect a big win with a small investment, in a real random quest.
How to use the strategies
Download and unzip the file containing the strategies:
www.ipposnif.com/download/strategies/MasaAccum.zip
Import them into Ipposnif (you can read how to do it from here).
Activate all 9 strategies.
Strategy A, D, and G will start betting.
If one of the three rounds of strategy A is won, strategy B will start betting. The same applies to strategies D and E, and strategies G and H.
If strategy B is won, strategy C will start betting. If strategy C is won the streak is met and we have won the "Jackpot". The same applies to strategies E and F, and strategies H and I.
Each group of strategies is independent, and theoretically, we could win all three groups and collect three jackpots of 3000€ each. But as soon as you will start this "adventure", you will realize that one is enough!
Notes:
1. Only one of the strategies A, D, and G, can bet on the same market.
2. The final strategies C, F, and I, bet only on GB and IE horse racing markets because they need more liquidity to place the bets.
Update 6 Dec 2020
I'm running this strategy for a while. I like it because it is perfect for testing Ipposnif, and because it requires a small commitment while keeping open the chance to collect a big win.
I wanted to share some new calculations about its probabilities and also some early statistics.
The three Masaniello groups are very similar regarding the chance to win, so I will consider here only the first one: MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 1-2-3
The odd of reference for the Masa function is @2.40, but we place bets in the range 2.48-2.76. The gap between 2.40 and 2.48 is used to cover the Betfair fees, estimated at 5%.
On average, we'll match a bet at a price in the middle between 2.48 and 2.76, so @2.62. The gap between 2.48 and 2.62 will give us some extra profit that is not accounted for in the Masaniello stakes and remains in the balance even if the strategy is losing.
In addition, when the strategy steps to the next level, it doesn't invest the whole won capital, but a fixed amount: 0.30€ -> 6.00€ -> 120€. The difference remains in our balance, even if the three steps are not completed.
These extra profits make the cost of a "ticket" much cheaper than it was asserted before: not around 2€ but around 1€. From here you can download the report of my first 32 tickets.
www.ipposnif.com/download/MasanielloAccumulatorReport01.xlsx
In 32 tickets the strategy has stepped to the 2' level, 6 times. The strategy has never stepped to the third and last level.
These numbers are aligned with the mathematical probability calculated below.
To calculate the probability of closing a Masaniello round, we should consider the average price at which we place bets. In this case, we said it is @2.62, and the chance to win a round of the group-1 is 1 out of 45. 1/44 for group-2, and 1/47 for group-3. For simplicity, we consider 1/45 as an average chance to win a Masaniello round in one of the three groups.
In one ticket are included 3 attempts for each group, for a total of 9 attempts. The chance to step to the second level is 45/9=5
One ticket out of five, steps to the second level. In fact, on 32 tickets, the strategy has stepped to the 2' level, 6 times (32/5=6.4).
When the strategy steps to the second level, it comes the most difficult part: now we need to close two rounds in a row, with only one attempt each.
So the final result is 5*45*45=10125. Statistically, one ticket out of 10125 is winning.
I will update these calculations later when the strategy will step once to level 3 because the extra profit of the final step will reduce furthermore the average cost of a ticket.
Update 14 Dec 2020
No lucky streak yet, and still never reached the last step of the strategy. 59 tickets played in 15 days for a total cost of 76.85€ (average cost 1.30€ per ticket).
Considering the tiny chances to meet the winning streak, this is perfectly normal, but the strategy itself is losing a bit of charm to me.
Anyway, from this negative result (for now), it comes out a positive reflection that it is worth the money spent till now, and could lead to new, more speculative, strategies.
The Masaniello progression not only is good to spread an investment on multiple events, but it can act as leverage for an eventual edge.
A Masaniello, 4 wins out of 8 events, at price 2.00 produces a net result of +57% of the investment.
A Masaniello, 4 wins out of 8 events, at price 2.30 produces a net result of +104% of the investment.
So, a small difference between the two odds, 2.00 and 2.30 (+30%), produces a big difference in the final result (+82%).
Update 27 Dec 2020
I'm still running this strategy from time to time because I want to give it a chance to play the last round at least once.
The strategy has been renamed from "Jackpot Masaniello" to the more appropriate "Masaniello Accumulator".
I have played till now 66 tickets. The strategy has stepped to the second round 13 times out of 66 attempts. The statistic is confirming the probability calculation that I have done above: 66/13=5.07
The average cost of a ticket is now 1.08€
[to continue...]
In this case, we are gambling, and to win money, we need to cover (and overcome) the negative part of our ROI with a positive variance in our favor. Basically, we need Luck.
We cannot pretend to be always lucky in the long term, this is not really possible, but we can expect to have one lucky streak.
The scope of this strategy is to maximize a lucky streak and to give a big boost to our Betfair balance, keeping the ROI positive for a while.
The cost of one "ticket" is around 2€ and if the lucky streak is met, we win a minimum of 3000€.
If the ticket is losing, we need to manually reset the strategies and restart investing another ticket.
The Masaniello Accumulator strategy is formed by 3 groups of 3 Masaniello strategies each, for a total of 9 strategies. Please use the latest version 3.1.36 of Ipposnif to run the strategies.
These strategies have been tested with the default download configuration of Ipposnif, which downloads horse and greyhound races from the most relevant countries.
A. MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 1 (max 3 rounds, WIN/PLACE markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 2.48-2.72, 8 wins out of 11 events)
B. MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 2 (max 1 round, WIN/PLACE markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 2.48-2.72, 8 wins out of 11 events)
C. MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 3 (max 1 round, only WIN markets of horse races from GB and IE, price range 2.48-2.72, 8 wins out of 11 events)
D. MasaAccumB@3.65 5/8 1 (max 3 rounds, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 3.80-4.60, 5 wins out of 8 events)
E. MasaAccumB@3.65 5/8 2 (max 1 round, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 3.80-4.60, 5 wins out of 8 events)
F. MasaAccumB@3.65 5/8 3 (max 1 round, only WIN markets of horse races from GB and IE, price range 3.80-4.60, 5 wins out of 8 events)
G. MasaAccumB@4.80 5/10 1 (max 3 rounds, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 5.00-6.10, 5 wins out of 10 events)
H. MasaAccumB@4.80 5/10 2 (max 1 round, WIN markets of horse and greyhound races, price range 5.00-6.10, 5 wins out of 10 events)
I. MasaAccumB@4.80 5/10 3 (max 1 round, only WIN markets of horse races from GB and IE, price range 5.00-6.10, 5 wins out of 10 events)
The runners to bet are chosen by their price, and in the long term, the price is a precise statistical indicator of the runner's chance to win. There is still to account the market Overround and the Betfair fees, which will unbalance the chances to win in favor of the bank (Betfair). But compared to other games, this strategy offers a very fair chance to collect a big win with a small investment, in a real random quest.
How to use the strategies
Download and unzip the file containing the strategies:
www.ipposnif.com/download/strategies/MasaAccum.zip
Import them into Ipposnif (you can read how to do it from here).
Activate all 9 strategies.
Strategy A, D, and G will start betting.
If one of the three rounds of strategy A is won, strategy B will start betting. The same applies to strategies D and E, and strategies G and H.
If strategy B is won, strategy C will start betting. If strategy C is won the streak is met and we have won the "Jackpot". The same applies to strategies E and F, and strategies H and I.
Each group of strategies is independent, and theoretically, we could win all three groups and collect three jackpots of 3000€ each. But as soon as you will start this "adventure", you will realize that one is enough!
Notes:
1. Only one of the strategies A, D, and G, can bet on the same market.
2. The final strategies C, F, and I, bet only on GB and IE horse racing markets because they need more liquidity to place the bets.
Update 6 Dec 2020
I'm running this strategy for a while. I like it because it is perfect for testing Ipposnif, and because it requires a small commitment while keeping open the chance to collect a big win.
I wanted to share some new calculations about its probabilities and also some early statistics.
The three Masaniello groups are very similar regarding the chance to win, so I will consider here only the first one: MasaAccumB@2.40 8/11 1-2-3
The odd of reference for the Masa function is @2.40, but we place bets in the range 2.48-2.76. The gap between 2.40 and 2.48 is used to cover the Betfair fees, estimated at 5%.
On average, we'll match a bet at a price in the middle between 2.48 and 2.76, so @2.62. The gap between 2.48 and 2.62 will give us some extra profit that is not accounted for in the Masaniello stakes and remains in the balance even if the strategy is losing.
In addition, when the strategy steps to the next level, it doesn't invest the whole won capital, but a fixed amount: 0.30€ -> 6.00€ -> 120€. The difference remains in our balance, even if the three steps are not completed.
These extra profits make the cost of a "ticket" much cheaper than it was asserted before: not around 2€ but around 1€. From here you can download the report of my first 32 tickets.
www.ipposnif.com/download/MasanielloAccumulatorReport01.xlsx
In 32 tickets the strategy has stepped to the 2' level, 6 times. The strategy has never stepped to the third and last level.
These numbers are aligned with the mathematical probability calculated below.
To calculate the probability of closing a Masaniello round, we should consider the average price at which we place bets. In this case, we said it is @2.62, and the chance to win a round of the group-1 is 1 out of 45. 1/44 for group-2, and 1/47 for group-3. For simplicity, we consider 1/45 as an average chance to win a Masaniello round in one of the three groups.
In one ticket are included 3 attempts for each group, for a total of 9 attempts. The chance to step to the second level is 45/9=5
One ticket out of five, steps to the second level. In fact, on 32 tickets, the strategy has stepped to the 2' level, 6 times (32/5=6.4).
When the strategy steps to the second level, it comes the most difficult part: now we need to close two rounds in a row, with only one attempt each.
So the final result is 5*45*45=10125. Statistically, one ticket out of 10125 is winning.
I will update these calculations later when the strategy will step once to level 3 because the extra profit of the final step will reduce furthermore the average cost of a ticket.
Update 14 Dec 2020
No lucky streak yet, and still never reached the last step of the strategy. 59 tickets played in 15 days for a total cost of 76.85€ (average cost 1.30€ per ticket).
Considering the tiny chances to meet the winning streak, this is perfectly normal, but the strategy itself is losing a bit of charm to me.
Anyway, from this negative result (for now), it comes out a positive reflection that it is worth the money spent till now, and could lead to new, more speculative, strategies.
The Masaniello progression not only is good to spread an investment on multiple events, but it can act as leverage for an eventual edge.
A Masaniello, 4 wins out of 8 events, at price 2.00 produces a net result of +57% of the investment.
A Masaniello, 4 wins out of 8 events, at price 2.30 produces a net result of +104% of the investment.
So, a small difference between the two odds, 2.00 and 2.30 (+30%), produces a big difference in the final result (+82%).
Update 27 Dec 2020
I'm still running this strategy from time to time because I want to give it a chance to play the last round at least once.
The strategy has been renamed from "Jackpot Masaniello" to the more appropriate "Masaniello Accumulator".
I have played till now 66 tickets. The strategy has stepped to the second round 13 times out of 66 attempts. The statistic is confirming the probability calculation that I have done above: 66/13=5.07
The average cost of a ticket is now 1.08€
[to continue...]
